Crude Oil Prices Volatile: Stockpiles Rise and Trade Risks Grow

Today’s markets analysis on behalf of Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at Tickmill

5th February 2025

Crude oil futures remained under pressure after a turbulent session, as traders reacted to rising U.S. stockpiles and escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions. China’s tariffs add uncertainty and their broader impact on the global supply and demand of energy products could fuel some risks. Prices initially dipped after China imposed tariffs on U.S. energy imports but later rebounded when President Trump reaffirmed his strategy to apply maximum pressure on Iran, aiming to curb its crude exports. With sanctions potentially removing up to 1.5 million barrels per day from global supply, the market found some support.

However, this optimism was short-lived as larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory builds reignited concerns over demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Rising stockpiles and trade-related uncertainty could continue to weigh on crude, reinforcing a bearish sentiment due to persistent demand-side risks. While supply constraints provide some stability, expectations of increasing production in the US and from OPEC members could weigh on the market over the longer term.