By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
September 25, 2025 –
“Crude oil prices are easing today as traders take profits and reassess a market that has been pulled in opposite directions by supply risks and demand concerns. The earlier rally was supported by a surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories, which briefly revived fears of tightness, and by renewed geopolitical jitters following reports of refinery shutdowns in Russia after drone strikes. Those disruptions underscored how fragile supply lines remain and helped build a risk premium into prices.
Yet the market’s mood has shifted as attention turns to the demand side. With the summer driving season over, U.S. gasoline consumption is softening and airlines are signaling more modest growth in jet fuel demand heading into the final quarter of the year. This seasonal slowdown is adding weight to the view that the recent upswing may have run ahead of fundamentals. At the same time, expectations that Kurdish exports could gradually resume after recent agreements between Baghdad and regional authorities are also contributing to a sense that supply may not be as constrained as feared.
Macro dynamics are amplifying the move. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data have lifted the dollar in recent sessions, making oil more expensive for non-dollar buyers and tempering some of the bullish impulse that came from supply shocks. That interplay between currency strength and commodity pricing remains a delicate balance, particularly with investors still parsing the Fed’s signal that rate cuts will come at a slower, more data-dependent pace.”