By Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com
Bitcoin stabilizes today above 91,000 dollars after yesterday’s slide pushed it briefly below 89,000 dollars for the first time since last April.
Bitcoin’s inability to mount a meaningful recovery reflects a market where major defenses lines continue to fall. Large whales are unwinding positions at an accelerated pace. The retreat in strategic holdings indicates that buyers with the strongest balance sheets are no longer absorbing pressure, opening the door for lower lows if momentum does not reverse quickly.
From different market angles, bitcoin does not exhibit characteristics of a completed bottoming phase. Whales are dumbing their holdings, spot ETF outflow show alarming singals, and futures markets continue to clear leveraged long positioning. This trio reinforces a picture of a market still undergoing structural adjustment rather than entering accumulation.
My view is that bitcoin may eventually regain strength and push toward fresh record highs, yet current indicators contradict the widespread narrative of buying the dip. The absence of bottoming patterns becomes more notable considering the improved sentiment in global equities during Asian hours after Nvidia’s quarterly results reduced concerns about stretched valuations. Even with this broader risk relief, bitcoin has not responded with its usual beta, which strengthens the case that internal market dynamics are holding it down.
Data across several venues supports this assessment. According to Coin Metrics, the number of bitcoin whales holding more than the equivalent of 10 million dollars have fallen sharply to the lowest level since May. Their count dropped from last week’s peak of 21,180 to 16,510 yesterday and sits 30 percent below October’s record high. The decline is mirrored across smaller whale categories, pointing to broad-based distribution.
Flows in spot ETFs add another layer to the story. SoSo Value data shows that although spot ETFs saw positive net inflows yesterday, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded more than 523 million dollars in outflows on Tuesday, its largest single-day withdrawal. This signals that institutional participation remains inconsistent and highly reactive to market stress.
Futures markets paint an equally cautious picture. CoinGlass data shows more than 490 million dollars in long liquidations across crypto futures market, including over 130 million dollars in bitcoin alone. Total futures open interest remains pinned near July lows, confirming that traders continue to maintain a risk-off stance following the massive leverage wipeout on October 10.
Even spot-market accumulation appears fragile. Bitcoin’s on-balance volume on Coinbase has dropped to its lowest point since April, indicating buyers are not stepping in with conviction.
This lack of sustained accumulation reinforces the view that the market is still digesting excess leverage and structural outflows rather than preparing for a durable upswing.