By Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill
Gold traded in a range on Friday. The anticipation ahead of the release of the NFP report fuels some caution. The report could shape expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2026.
Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts this year. A weaker-than-expected jobs report would reinforce the view of a cooling labour market, likely supporting gold. Conversely, a resilient reading could challenge easing expectations and trigger near-term pressure on the metal.
The geopolitical backdrop remains firmly supportive. Rising tensions in multiple regions continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets. In Eastern Europe, escalating tensions have further reduced the likelihood of a near-term peace agreement, sustaining geopolitical risk premia in global markets.
In the meantime, the US Senate has advanced a resolution aimed at limiting President Trump’s ability to conduct further military action in Venezuela without congressional approval, potentially tempering further escalation risk going forward.
Structurally, the picture for gold remains constructive. Global gold ETFs recorded strong inflows. The metal also continued to benefit from central purchases.