By Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com
Gold is experiencing one of the most historic moments in its recent trajectory. In January 2026, the spot price of the precious metal surpassed the $5,100-per-ounce threshold, setting a new all-time high and confirming that the bullish cycle has taken on a structural dimension. So far this year, gold has already gained more than 18%, after closing 2025 with a nearly 65% increase, one of the strongest performances in recent decades.
One of the main catalysts behind this move continues to be expectations of a shift in U.S. monetary policy. Financial markets are currently pricing in between 2 and 3 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. This scenario reduces the
relative appeal of fixed-income instruments and strengthens demand for tangible assets such as gold.
The weakness of the U.S. dollar has further reinforced this momentum. The dollar index remains near its lowest levels since September 2025, down close to 9% year over year, which increases the purchasing power of international investors and
boosts global demand for the precious metal. Historically, such environments have been particularly favorable for prolonged gold appreciation cycles.
Central bank purchases remain another key pillar of market support. In 2025, official purchases exceeded 1,000 metric tons, and preliminary 2026 data suggest the pace of accumulation remains elevated. China, India, Poland, and Brazil are among the countries that have most increased their reserves, consolidating a trend toward diversification away from the dollar as the dominant asset. Institutional demand has also grown strongly. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded inflows exceeding $20 billion during the last quarter of 2025 and continue to see positive flows in January 2026. Total assets under management in gold-linked ETFs now exceed $130 billion, reflecting a profound shift in global portfolio construction.
The geopolitical environment remains a relevant driver. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the fragility of diplomatic processes, and the risk of a prolonged conflict keep uncertainty levels high. Each escalation episode has coincided with intraday
moves in gold of between $60 and $120 per ounce, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to global risks.
Added to this is a renewed climate of trade frictions. Threats to impose tariffs of up to 25% on strategic sectors, as well as aggressive rhetoric regarding relations with Canada and sensitive geopolitical issues such as Greenland, have revived fears of a
new wave of protectionism. These factors erode confidence in the international financial system and further strengthen demand for safe-haven assets.
From a technical perspective, gold maintains a clearly bullish structure. It is trading well above its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with key support levels already established around the $4,850–$4,900 zone, suggesting that even moderate
pullbacks could be interpreted as buying opportunities within a broader trend.
In conclusion, gold has ceased to be merely a defensive asset and has become a central protagonist of the new financial order. With prices above $5,100, year-over- year gains exceeding 80%, expectations of rate cuts, a weaker dollar, record central
bank purchases, and strong institutional inflows, the precious metal consolidates a structurally bullish outlook. As long as these factors remain in place, gold not only preserves its value but redefines its role as a strategic asset in 2026.