Mumbai, Feb 27: As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits India to revive negotiations on the long-pending Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), Rubix Data Sciences has released new analysis highlighting the evolving dynamics of India–Canada bilateral goods trade.
Currently valued at USD 8.7 billion, India–Canada trade has grown steadily from USD 6.9 billion in FY2022, recording an annual growth rate of 8%. However, the trade relationship remains vulnerable to commodity-driven fluctuations. In the first nine months of FY2026 (April–December 2025), bilateral trade declined 13% year-on-year, largely due to a 31% fall in India’s imports from Canada, reflecting volatility in commodity purchases such as fertilisers, pulses, and energy products.
Rubix Data Sciences notes that while commodities dominate the trade basket, India’s exports to Canada are gradually diversifying. Finished pharmaceuticals and electronics, including smartphones and telecom equipment, are gaining market share, signaling the country’s growing manufacturing base and integration into global technology supply chains. Canada continues to be a vital source of dried legumes, diamonds, and fertilisers, supporting India’s food security, gem and jewellery sector, and agriculture.
According to Rubix Data Sciences, the proposed CEPA could provide a structural reset for bilateral goods trade by improving market access, reducing tariff barriers, and strengthening supply chain linkages. This could help reduce trade volatility, promote sustainable growth, and advance the shared ambition of reaching USD 50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
Siddharth Agarwal, Senior Analyst, Rubix Data Sciences, commented:
“A comprehensive trade agreement between India and Canada has the potential to unlock the next phase of growth, enabling more predictable trade flows, enhancing market access for Indian exporters, and reducing exposure to commodity price cycles.”
The renewed negotiations come at a strategic moment, as Canada seeks to diversify its export markets, while India continues to expand its manufacturing and global trade footprint. Rubix Data Sciences’ analysis underscores the critical role that CEPA could play in deepening economic cooperation and creating long-term, structural growth opportunities for both nations.