By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
October 3, 2025 –
“The Colombian peso depreciated on Thursday, retreating against major currencies as traders digested this week’s mixed domestic data and a renewed slide in crude oil prices. The latest cement production figures signaled weaker investment activity, while the September PMI retreated from recent highs to 52.0, reflecting a slowdown in momentum. Although unemployment improved to 8.6%, pointing to a firm labour market, the peso could remain under pressure.
Adding to headwinds, WTI crude extended losses amid growing expectations that OPEC+ may accelerate supply hikes starting in October. Any increase could exacerbate the global glut already flagged by the IEA and weigh on Colombia’s export revenues, given the country’s reliance on oil for fiscal balance.
On the monetary front, this week, the Colombian central bank left rates unchanged at 9.25%, in line with market expectations, which could increase the peso’s appeal amid globally softer interest rates. Moreover, traders anticipate a prolonged pause in rate cuts amid sticky inflation, political tensions, and rising fiscal uncertainty following the suspension of the fiscal rule.
Externally, global investor sentiment soured further after the US government shut down on Wednesday, raising global risk aversion. Prolonged gridlock could trigger safe-haven flows into gold, the Swiss franc, or the Japanese yen, to the detriment of emerging market currencies like the peso.
Looking ahead, without important upcoming economic data, traders will closely monitor oil prices as well as US government developments.