By Milad Azar, Market Analyst at XTB MENA
August 1, 2025:
Crude oil futures could remain under pressure, as rising inventories and renewed trade tensions weigh on market sentiment. A surprise 7.7-million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, the largest in six months, has raised fresh concerns. Furthermore, OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which could potentially weigh on prices. Trade developments are further clouding the outlook. U.S. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of 10% to 41% on imports from key trading partners has amplified fears of slower global growth and weaker fuel demand.
However, his threat of 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, particularly China and India, has raised the spectre of disrupted trade flows. Whilst such measures could curtail up to 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, the broader economic implications of rising protectionism may outweigh any supportive price effect. At the same time, the market could remain exposed to any surprise in economic data as traders monitor the developments in the US and China.