Market comments on behalf of Terence Hove Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
The US dollar remained near multi-week lows on Tuesday as investors awaited a dense set of macroeconomic releases that could reshape expectations for US monetary policy in 2026 and set the tone for the greenback in the near term. Markets are focused on the delayed nonfarm payrolls reports for October and November, alongside November’s unemployment rate and October retail sales, all of which are expected to provide clearer signals on the underlying strength of the US economy after weeks of data disruption caused by the government shutdown.
Currently, traders are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of next year. The outcome of today’s data could shift those expectations, driving volatility across both currency and bond markets.
Beyond the US data, attention is also turning to a busy week for global central banks. The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to deliver a rate hike, a move that could support the yen and weigh on the dollar as the respective monetary policies diverge. In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates, broadly mirroring the Federal Reserve’s recent easing bias.