By Ahmad Assiri, Research Strategist, Pepperstone
July 25, 2025:
Gold is holding its ground around the 20‑day moving average in early Friday trading, even as hedging appetite has eased slightly in the after‑glow of this week’s US–Japan deal, a feel‑good event that has fueled optimism for a similar deal with the euro area.
After banking mid‑week gains near $3,440 per ounce, the metal settled above its 20‑day moving average at $3,360. It has given up gains over the last two sessions, yet looks set for another consolidation loop clustered around the 20‑day line and the comparatively firm support band defined by the 50‑day averages, a narrow‑range pattern much like last week’s setup.
This price action suggests investors still favor to some extent defensive positions against potential monetary policy surprises, especially given the broader macro challenges. In the background, questions over Federal Reserve independence refuse to fade; US administration’ repeated nose‑poking into the Fed’s autonomy is unsettling to investors.
Until the outlook clears, gold remains a comfortable haven despite surrendering the week’s early gains, tracking every twitch in the dollar and any whisper from the White House. For traders, this is an environment that rewards holding risk‑managed positions rather than chasing sharp intraday moves. With earnings season approaching its peak and market expectations sky‑high, demand for safety is not elevated while many investors enjoy their summer breaks, leaving forecasts and hedges on hold until they return to their desks.