By Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com
As of the Asian session on December 1, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around 86,000 USD. Compared to the historical peak near 126,000 USD set in early October, BTC has now corrected more than 30% from the top, and in November alone, the price fell by about 17.28%, making it the second-worst month of 2025, only behind the 17.39% decline in February. At the same time, this is also the worst November since 2022, when Bitcoin lost about 16.23% of its value in a single month. This shows that the current correction is not just a normal pullback but a strong restructuring phase in the context of the market having overheated throughout the period from early 2023 to October 2025.
Bitcoin is experiencing clear impacts from the global “risk-off” wave in financial markets. Over the past six weeks, the entire cryptocurrency market has shed around 1 trillion USD in market capitalization, with Bitcoin alone falling from the peak near 126,000 USD to around 86,000 USD, wiping out more than 400 billion USD in market value. The pressure comes from many factors such as policy risks, trade uncertainties, weakening economic growth prospects, and profit-taking sentiment after an extended period of gains. In this environment, Bitcoin shows more clearly its nature as a risk asset, and when the market enters a strong sell-off phase, risk appetite diminishes further.
One of the most critical supply-side factors is the capital outflow from Bitcoin ETFs. Data from Sosovalue shows that in November 2025 alone, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of nearly 3.55 billion USD. Meanwhile, statistics from CoinDesk also recorded an outflow of approximately 3.79 billion USD, the highest level since these ETFs were approved in January 2024. Continuous ETF outflows over four weeks have significantly weakened institutional demand, triggering selling pressure both from the funds themselves and from investors who follow ETF flows. This is a notable difference from previous cycles when the role of ETFs and institutions was not as large as it is now.
Regarding market sentiment and on-chain data, Glassnode shows that realized losses among short-term holders surged sharply in November. The 7-day EMA realized loss of this group rose to about 427 million USD per day, the highest level since November 2022, and even exceeding the two major bottoms of the current cycle. This figure reflects panic selling among short-term investors. The market is shaking out late entrants, highly leveraged traders, or those expecting prices to rise too quickly in the short term.
Notably, not only short-term investors but also institutional flows are showing signs of pausing. However, at the end of November, a slight balancing signal appeared when, after four consecutive weeks of outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of around 70.5 million USD, bringing the total accumulated net inflow since their launch to approximately 57.7 billion USD and total net assets of these ETFs to 119.4 billion USD, equivalent to about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Although this number is modest compared to the heavy outflows of the previous four weeks, it is still considered a positive sign that supports a more constructive long-term institutional structure.
But this does not represent an immediate return of short-term capital flows; it only shows a more cautious tone and a slowdown in the current selling pressure.
Based on the above figures, it can be summarized that the current fundamental trend of Bitcoin remains in a correction phase and is searching for a new accumulation zone. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to continue fluctuating strongly within the 80,000–90,000 USD range and may even retest deeper support around 70,000 – 72,000 USD if macro conditions and capital flows do not improve significantly.
In the medium and long term, if the Fed begins to signal clearer monetary easing, macro risks ease, and ETF flows shift from net outflows to neutral or net inflows, Bitcoin will have the runway to establish a new upward cycle. However, before those conditions converge, the market continues to force investors to return to disciplined risk management, avoid excessive leverage, and recognize Bitcoin more as a high-risk asset rather than a high-yield one.