By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
October 3, 2025 –
“Crude oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI futures sliding below USD 61.5 per barrel to a four-month low extending a four day decline streak.The bigger swing factor remains supply policy. Markets are still digesting reports that OPEC+ could accelerate its scheduled increases—in size and timing—into November. Even the possibility of a faster ramp (variously framed as ~0.3–0.5 mb/d) resets the risk balance toward looser fundamentals into year-end, keeping rallies self-limiting unless geopolitics or outages intervene.
U.S. balances didn’t help the bull case. The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed refinery runs easing and a crude build, alongside weaker product output—classic shoulder-season dynamics that blunt demand for feedstock and leave more crude on hand. With the EIA continuing to publish despite the federal shutdown, this datapoint carried extra weight in a week when other U.S. macro releases are at risk of delay.
Macro still leans towards a demand-cautious scenario. In the U.S., the ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up but stayed in contraction, offering “less bad” rather than “good” news for industrial fuel demand. Across Asia, PMIs were mixed to soft—China’s official gauge remained below 50 and Japan’s slipped further—reinforcing a picture of tepid goods momentum. These aren’t collapsing signals, but they do restrain the speed at which cracks in the oil market can heal.
For Latin America, the near-term read-through is more about policy and project cadence than immediate barrels. Mexico’s ongoing support for Pemex and Brazil’s mix of licensing hurdles and green-lit offshore projects shape medium-term regional flows—but they won’t offset the faster-moving OPEC+/U.S. inventory narrative this month. As those programs advance (or stall), they’ll matter more to differentials and freight patterns than to front-month direction.
Furthermore, the weakness in US imports presents an additional challenge. Crude imports into the US have been slowing which if sustained, such declines could strain fiscal revenues in oil-export dependent economies like Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, while adding depreciation pressure on their currencies.
However, geopolitical risks remain a background factor. The G7 pledged tighter enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil flows, and Washington will provide Ukraine with intelligence support for long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, which could help limit downside risk.”