By Maria Agustina Patti, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Crude oil prices were relatively stable today and could consolidate near multi-week lows. Traders could remain cautious due to the uncertainty around geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and their impact on supply levels.
In this regard, the diplomatic push for a peace deal could lead to the sanctions on Russian oil firms being potentially lifted, which would flood the market with previously constrained Russian barrels. Higher volume availability could weigh on a market that is already under pressure from a bearish narrative.
Forecasts continue to point to a supply glut in the coming year. Additionally, yesterday’s data from the EIA confirmed a surprise inventory build of 2.77 million barrels, defying consensus expectations for a draw. While some uncertainty looms ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend, the group is expected to pause Q1 2026 output hikes, which could help reduce the downside risks for oil prices.