Market Analysis by Antonio Di Giacomo, Financial Markets Analyst for LATAM at XS.com
– September 30, 2025 –
“Gold extended its bullish rally, reaching a new all-time high of $3,833 per ounce and consolidating above $3,800. The move came after the release of U.S. inflation data (PCE), which came in line with market expectations. This scenario reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a gradual approach to interest rate cuts throughout the year.
U.S. macroeconomic data showed that headline PCE rose to 2.7% year-over-year in August, up from 2.6% the previous month, while the core reading remained at 2.9%. Every month, the index advanced by 0.3% and the core index by 0.2%. According to analysts, these figures confirm that inflation remains under control, without substantially altering the outlook for monetary policy.
Another key point was the growth in the value of U.S. Treasury gold reserves, which have now surpassed one trillion dollars at market prices, driven by the strong rally in the metal. However, in official records, they remain valued at about $11 billion, with the price set back in 1973. Over the past twelve months, gold has gained nearly 45%, reflecting its strength as a safe-haven asset.
Among the structural factors supporting this rally are continued central bank purchases, with no signs of selling even at record levels. Added to this are concerns about U.S. debt, persistent inflation, dollar weakness from rate cuts, and the global de-dollarization process.
Political tensions between the White House and the Fed also add uncertainty over the independence of monetary policy, increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, strong speculative demand in financial markets reinforces the metal’s momentum during times of volatility.
In the short term, market attention is focused on upcoming U.S. labor data, including the JOLTS surveys, the ADP report, ISM indices, and non-farm payrolls. If results show weakness, the dollar could come under pressure, providing additional support for gold. Conversely, better-than-expected data could trigger profit-taking in the precious metal.
In this context, the overall picture shows that the gold rally does not rely solely on Fed expectations but is underpinned by broader structural and geopolitical factors. However, the evolution of employment data this week will be crucial in determining whether gold consolidates above record highs or faces a technical correction.
In conclusion, gold is experiencing a historic moment with record prices, driven both by U.S. monetary policy and global structural factors. The combination of contained inflation, central bank purchases, dollar weakness, and political tensions has reinforced its role as a haven. Nevertheless, markets remain attentive to upcoming economic indicators that will set the tone for their immediate trend.”