By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist, at Pepperstone
October 9, 2025 –
“WTI traded with a steadier tone today as the market digested a rare mix of incremental supply restraint and persistent oversupply worries. The immediate impulse came from OPEC+, which opted for a small November increase—about 137 kb/d—after days of debate over larger hikes. Because the move undershot the more aggressive scenarios circulating last week, it took some of the air out of glut fears and allowed prices to rebuild a little composure. The signal from producers, in other words, was “nudge, don’t flood,” and that helped stabilize sentiment after a bruising stretch.
That support collided with a heavier macro backdrop anchored in U.S. supply. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook lifted 2025 U.S. crude output to a fresh record near 13.53 mb/d and flagged rising global inventories through 2026—an outlook that mechanically leans on the market via higher stocks and lower average prices ahead. Even if OPEC+ treads carefully, a faster-than-expected Gulf of Mexico ramp-up and resilient shale productivity keep the balance sheet loose unless demand surprises to the upside.
Weekly microdata reinforced that push-and-pull. Preliminary industry figures pointed to a U.S. crude build alongside draws at key nodes and mixed signals in products—just enough to remind traders that supply is ample. With official EIA statistics due and closely watched, the next few prints will decide whether today’s steadier tone hardens into a base or gives way to renewed selling.
Geopolitics remained a volatility overlay rather than a clear direction setter. Russian exports are still running near multi-month highs despite intermittent disruptions and rerouting—another reason rallies struggle to extend—but the very fact that flows depend on war-time logistics preserves the tail-risk of abrupt outages. Meanwhile, incremental upstream cost pressures—think specialty inputs for drilling—are starting to creep back into the conversation, a slow-burn factor that could cap how aggressively producers add barrels if margins compress.
Put together, today’s WTI action looks less like the start of a trend and more like a market feeling out a range: modest producer restraint cushions the downside, while the EIA’s rising-stock narrative and robust U.S. supply limit the upside. Near term, watch the cadence of U.S. inventory data and any OPEC+ signaling around December and Q1; medium term, the path of demand—China’s industrial pulse, European refined product pull, and U.S. mobility—will determine whether balances tighten enough to break the stalemate. For now, the burden of proof for a durable rally still sits with consumption, not supply.”