By Frank Walbaum, Market Analyst at Naga
Oil was relatively stable today and remained near recent lows despite a slight rebound during the last few days. Price action could remain limited and choppy while WTI futures are frozen due to a system outage at exchange operator CME and thin post-Thanksgiving liquidity.
Meanwhile, the market could still be affected by geopolitical risks and oversupply fears. Markets could continue to face the uncertainty surrounding the peace talks in Eastern Europe. In the case of a breakthrough, traders could be facing a return of more Russian crude to an already well-supplied market. However, stalled progress could provide some support to the market.
The IEA projects that global supply could outpace demand by up to 4 mb/d next year. Oversupply fears could continue to weigh on the market over the long term. At the same time, OPEC+ is widely expected to leave its policy unchanged for Q1 2026, pausing further output hikes.