By Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade
Crude oil prices staged a rebound today, with WTI climbing around 2% to just below USD 60 per barrel. The market found support after OPEC+’s weekend decision to reaffirm its production pause during the first quarter of 2026. The output hold could help reduce concerns about an oversupplied market to a certain extent.
Geopolitical tensions also contributed to the market’s strength. Fresh disruptions to the energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe affected supply expectations in addition to the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela. Together, these factors have nudged traders to re-price some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been unwound on hopes of a peace deal for Eastern Europe.
However, today’s strength is unfolding against a bearish structural backdrop. Despite the bounce, oil was down in November and sharply lower year-on-year, with benchmarks well off their 2025 highs. Meanwhile, medium-term projections from major energy agencies continue to flag a sizable supply surplus into 2026, driven by robust non-OPEC output.