By Mohammed Ali Al Hattawi, Owner of Al-Diwan Company
Crude oil prices remained subdued on Tuesday as hopes for three-way talks between Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington raised the prospect of easing sanctions on Russian crude, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. US President Trump confirmed discussions with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, indicating progress toward diplomacy that eased fears of further sanctions or supply disruptions. A softer US stance on secondary sanctions could lead markets to see reduced risks to global oil flows, keeping prices under pressure after some gains on Monday. While a resolution could push crude lower, broader tariffs or sanctions remain an upside risk.
At the same time, market participants await the weekly API crude inventory data for the week ending August 15, 2025, after last week’s report showed an unexpected US crude build of 1.5 million barrels versus expectations for a drawdown. On Wednesday, the EIA report will provide further confirmation, with continued builds likely to weigh on global crude prices amid risk of weaker demand, while any surprise drawdown could provide support.