New Delhi, Aug 31: India is expected to have recorded another strong quarter of economic growth during April-June, with research estimates putting the Q1 FY27 GDP growth rate between 7 per cent and 7.5 per cent. SBI Research has projected a higher growth rate of 8 per cent.
The official GDP figures are scheduled to be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Monday. The data will be closely watched for signs of how the economy has started the new financial year amid a challenging global environment.
India recorded 7.8 per cent growth in Q4 FY26, compared with 6.8 per cent in the same quarter a year earlier. The latest estimates suggest that the economy has continued to maintain a relatively strong growth pace.
The April-June period was also the first full quarter after the escalation of the West Asia conflict, which raised concerns over energy supplies, commodity prices and global supply chains. Despite these pressures, several indicators pointed to continued resilience in domestic economic activity.
Barclays has estimated Q1 FY27 growth at 7.5 per cent, citing improved performance across a majority of the high-frequency indicators it tracks.
Of the 20 indicators monitored by Barclays, only seven recorded a slower average year-on-year growth rate compared with the January-March quarter. The areas that saw some moderation included petrol, diesel and LPG consumption, along with fertiliser production, which were affected by disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict.
Steel production also recorded slower growth, while two-wheeler production moderated from the previous quarter but continued to remain healthy.
The estimates indicate that India’s domestic economy has retained considerable momentum despite external uncertainties. Continued activity across manufacturing, consumption and other high-frequency segments has helped cushion the impact of geopolitical disruptions.
The official GDP numbers will provide a clearer assessment of the economy’s performance in the first quarter and will be important for investors, businesses and policymakers as they assess India’s growth prospects for the remainder of FY27.