By Konstantinos Chrysikos Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade
Crude oil prices were volatile and retreated following a sanctions-driven surge on Tuesday. The market could remain sensitive to the possibility of fresh US sanctions and is assessing the measures targeting vessels involved in Iran’s oil shipping network.
Traders could also remain cautious ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting on September 7th. The consensus anticipates that the eight members participating in voluntary cuts to maintain current levels, putting a pause to their production increases and potentially anchoring prices within the established range.
On the data side, traders are forecasting a US crude inventory draw of approximately 3.4 million barrels for the week ending August 29. A draw of this magnitude, to be confirmed in the official EIA report, could reinforce the view of a tightening near-term market balance and could support prices.
Looking ahead, the market is underpinned by escalating supply risks, including sanctions on Russia, and signs that OPEC+ could pause production increases, creating a firm price floor for the week. At the same time, concerns about demand levels could continue to constitute a downside risk.