By Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade
Oil prices were mostly steady today after Monday’s rebound. Markets could continue to react to geopolitical developments and their impact on supply risks. The United States’ interception of a Venezuelan oil cargo and indications that it may sell the seized crude have lifted the perceived risk of tighter enforcement around Caracas’ exports. In parallel, tensions in Eastern Europe could continue to pose risks for shipping in the Black Sea.
Still, fundamentals could limit extended gains. The bigger headwind for oil prices remains the 2026 surplus narrative. The IEA’s December outlook points to supply growth of about 2.4 million bpd in 2026 versus demand growth of nearly 860 thousand bpd, leaving a large projected surplus. In that environment, the market could remain under constant pressure, limiting any rebounds. However, any severe and sustained disruptions could fuel more aggressive price gains. In the meantime, oil is likely to remain volatile, with daily moves dominated by geopolitical headlines.