For many Americans, the idea of a White Christmas feels almost magical, the kind of moment that turns a regular holiday morning into something out of a snow globe. The crunch of fresh snow underfoot, the quiet streets, the way holiday lights sparkle against a frosty backdrop, it’s a winter scene rooted deeply in nostalgia. And while Bing Crosby cemented the phrase into pop culture decades ago, the desire for snowy Christmas mornings continues today, especially as warmer winters become more common across much of the country.
But which states actually stand a chance this year? Using newly released predictions from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, the research team at Swiftdrain analyzed every region of the United States to determine where flakes are likely to fall on Christmas Day 2025.
The best bets for a white Christmas
According to the study, seven states rise above the rest as the most reliable destinations for Christmas snow: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Montana, and Alaska. All are projected to have high odds of snowfall on December 25, making them the clear winners for festive winter weather.
Not only are these states historically cold in December, but many sit in snow-prone corridors that regularly receive Arctic air surges. In northern New England especially, Christmas snow is practically part of the holiday package. Alaska, of course, stands in a category of its own, as a White Christmas is more of an expectation than a surprise.
States with mixed or regional snow chances
A large portion of the U.S. falls into a middle category, places where a White Christmas is possible but far from guaranteed.
Northeast and Upper Midwest
States like New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have high chances in northern or central regions, but odds diminish considerably in southern areas. Proximity to the Great Lakes and elevation play major roles here, meaning two cities in the same state can experience completely different Christmas mornings.
In the Midwest, snowfall odds stretch wider: Ohio, Illinois, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah are all listed as having snow potential in the east or the mountains, but not across the plains.
Moderate to low odds across New England and the Mid-Atlantic
Interestingly, several states culturally associated with snowy winters, such as Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina, receive only moderate to low odds of a White Christmas.
Higher elevations in states like West Virginia and Virginia retain some chance, but coastal and lowland areas continue to see warming patterns that make Christmas snowfall less frequent than in past decades.
Even New England, once almost synonymous with classic snowy holidays, is dealing with milder Decembers more regularly, an observation echoed in recent climate reports from NOAA, which have noted decreased snowfall days in several northeastern states over time.
States with low or very localized chances
Some states sit on the outer edges of winter’s reach, with only isolated regions, often the far north or mountains, offering any hope of a White Christmas this year.
This includes Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Kansas, where only the northern or higher-altitude zones hold low to moderate odds, while the rest of each state is expected to remain snow-free.
For residents living outside these pockets, a snowy December 25 is becoming increasingly rare. In many of these states, average December temperatures have been trending warmer, reducing snow-cover days compared to historical averages.
Where snow is least likely this Christmas
For much of the South, a White Christmas isn’t just unlikely, but essentially off the table.
States with zero chance of snow include:
South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Hawaii.
The West Coast also stays largely snowless: Oregon and California are expected to have snow-free holidays, while Washington may see activity only in mountain zones, not coastal cities.
This aligns with long-term climate trends showing increasingly warm Decembers in southern and coastal regions. Many of these states rarely see snow even in mid-winter, much less on a specific date.
How does this compare with the past?
Historically, Christmas snow was more common across northern states and even parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Records from NOAA show that in the mid-20th century, cities such as Boston, Pittsburgh, and Chicago saw Christmas snow more frequently than they do today.
Warmer winters, fewer cold snaps, and shifting storm tracks mean that White Christmases are becoming somewhat rarer, particularly in states outside the far North.
That’s part of why forecasts like this draw so much attention: they capture a cherished holiday tradition that many Americans feel is slowly slipping away.
The full list:
| State | White Christmas Odds |
| Maine | High Chance |
| New Hampshire | High Chance |
| Vermont | High Chance |
| Wisconsin | High Chance |
| Minnesota | High Chance |
| Montana | High Chance |
| Alaska | High Chance |
| Pennsylvania | High Chance (northern), Moderate / Low (southern) |
| Michigan | High Chance (northern), Moderate / Low (southern) |
| New York | High Chance (northern/central), Moderate / Low (southern) |
| Colorado | Chance in east / mountains, Not in plains |
| Ohio | Chance in east, Not in west |
| Idaho | Chance in east, Not in west |
| Wyoming | Chance in east, Not in west |
| Utah | Chance in east, Not in west |
| Illinois | Chance in north, Not in south |
| Missouri | Low / Moderate in far north, Low elsewhere |
| Arizona | Low / Moderate in far north, Zero elsewhere |
| New Mexico | Low / Moderate in far north, Zero elsewhere |
| Nevada | Low / Moderate in north, Zero elsewhere |
| Kansas | Low / Moderate in north, Zero in south |
| Massachusetts | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Rhode Island | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Connecticut | Moderate / Low Chance |
| New Jersey | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Delaware | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Maryland | Moderate / Low Chance |
| West Virginia | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Indiana | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Virginia | Moderate / Low Chance |
| North Carolina | Moderate / Low Chance |
| Iowa | Moderate / Low Chance (north), Low (south) |
| Kentucky | Moderate / Low in east, Low elsewhere |
| Tennessee | Moderate / Low in east, Low elsewhere |
| Oregon | Not a White Christmas |
| California | Not a White Christmas |
| Washington | Not a White Christmas (coast), Chance in mountains |
| South Carolina | Zero Chance |
| Georgia | Zero Chance |
| Florida | Zero Chance |
| Alabama | Zero Chance |
| Mississippi | Zero Chance |
| Louisiana | Zero Chance |
| Texas | Zero Chance |
| Oklahoma | Zero Chance |
| Arkansas | Zero Chance |
| Hawaii | Zero Chance |
Note: State-level odds are an interpretation based on the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2025 regional Christmas forecast.
Methodology
This study is based on The Old Farmer’s Almanac Christmas Forecast 2025, which divides the U.S. into major weather regions and labels each as “A White Christmas,” “Chance of a White Christmas,” or “Not a White Christmas.”
To create a state-level interpretation, researchers at Swiftdrain matched each state with its corresponding Almanac region(s). States that span multiple climate zones were assigned mixed odds based on variations in northern vs. southern areas and mountainous vs. low-altitude terrain.
This approach allows readers to understand how regional predictions translate to state-by-state expectations for snowfall on December 25.