By Frank Walbaum, Market Analyst at Naga
July 30, 2025:
Crude oil prices were firm in the early trading session on Wednesday after a two-day rally driven by escalating concerns over geopolitical tensions. The rally followed comments from US President Trump, who threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries continuing to import Russian crude unless Moscow made progress on ending the war in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. India’s indication that it may comply with U.S. measures raised the risk of a significant decline in Russian exports, potentially limiting global supply. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Pemex slashed crude exports to prioritise domestic refining, adding to the supply constraints.
However, the release of US inventory data tempered the bullish sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise 1.54-million-barrel build in US commercial crude stockpiles, contrary to expectations for a drawdown. The increase suggests a softer underlying demand and continued supply availability. The data could weigh on prices and limit the upside potential. Traders could turn to the data from the EIA and could react to any surprises.