Betting on the NFL can be an exciting way to enhance your experience of watching football. For beginners, however, the wide array of betting options and terminology can feel overwhelming. With a bit of knowledge and the right strategy, you can start betting on NFL games with confidence. In this guide, we’ll cover the basics of NFL betting, key strategies, and tips for building a solid foundation.
Understanding Basic NFL Betting Types
Before diving into strategies, it’s important to familiarize yourself with the common types of bets available for NFL games:
- Moneyline Bets: This is the simplest form of betting, where you are betting on which team will win the game outright. The favorite will have negative odds (e.g., -150), meaning you need to bet $150 to win $100, while the underdog will have positive odds (e.g., +130), meaning a $100 bet would win $130.
- Point Spread Bets: The point spread is the margin of victory expected by oddsmakers. When betting on the point spread, the favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by fewer points or win outright. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs are -6.5, they need to win by at least 7 points for a bet on them to win. Conversely, if the underdog Miami Dolphins are +6.5, they can lose by 6 or fewer points, or win the game outright for your bet to cash.
- Over/Under (Total) Bets: This type of bet focuses on the total number of points scored by both teams. You bet on whether the combined score will be over or under the line set by the sportsbook. For example, if the over/under for a game is set at 48.5 points, you bet on whether the final score will exceed or fall short of that total.
Key Strategies for NFL Betting
Now that you know the basics, let’s explore some strategies that can help you make smarter bets and increase your chances of winning:
- Do Your Research
Successful NFL betting starts with thorough research. Review team statistics, player performance, injuries, and trends leading up to the game. Look into how teams perform in specific conditions, such as on the road, in bad weather, or against divisional rivals. The more information you have, the better you’ll be able to make informed decisions. You can follow Doc’s NFL best bets to help you create a winning combination.
Additionally, understanding the coaching style of each team can give you an edge. Coaches who favor aggressive play-calling or conservative strategies can impact how games unfold, and this knowledge can help you make more accurate bets.
- Focus on Line Movement
Betting lines are not static. They can move as the week progresses due to factors like public betting trends, injuries, or even weather conditions. Pay attention to how lines move and why. If a line shifts significantly, it may indicate sharp money (bets placed by professional bettors) is backing one side. This can be a useful signal for where to place your money.
- Bet on Underdogs in Divisional Games
Divisional games in the NFL are often more competitive than non-divisional matchups, even when there is a clear favorite. Teams are familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses, which can lead to closer games. This creates opportunities to bet on underdogs, especially when they’re playing at home. Historically, divisional underdogs have been a good bet against the spread.
- Manage Your Bankroll
Bankroll management is crucial for long-term betting success. Set a budget for how much money you are willing to risk and stick to it. Avoid the temptation to bet more than you can afford, especially after a big loss. A common rule of thumb is to bet no more than 1-2% of your total bankroll on a single bet. This helps minimize losses and ensures you have enough capital to weather losing streaks.
- Shop for the Best Odds
Not all sportsbooks offer the same odds on a given game. It’s essential to shop around and find the best odds for your bets. Even a slight difference in odds can significantly affect your potential winnings over time. For example, if one sportsbook has a team at -110 and another has them at -105, you’ll pay less to place the same bet at the latter. Using multiple sportsbooks can increase your long-term profitability.
- Understand Betting Trends and Public Perception
The public often bets heavily on popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots, which can skew the odds in favor of the underdog. Recognizing when the public is backing a team based on reputation rather than actual data can help you find value in the opposing side. Fade the public when you believe there is an unjustified bias toward a particular team.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
As a beginner, it’s easy to make mistakes that can cost you money. Here are some pitfalls to watch out for:
- Betting with Your Heart: It’s natural to want to bet on your favorite team, but emotion should not dictate your betting decisions. Make objective choices based on research and data.
- Chasing Losses: After a losing bet, it can be tempting to place larger bets in an attempt to recover your losses. This approach often leads to even greater losses. Stay disciplined and stick to your bankroll management strategy.
- Ignoring Injuries and Weather: Injuries to key players, especially quarterbacks, can dramatically change the outcome of a game. Similarly, weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow can impact scoring and overall performance. Always check for injury updates and weather forecasts before placing your bets.
Conclusion
Betting on the NFL can be a fun and rewarding experience when done responsibly. By understanding the basic betting types, doing your research, and implementing smart strategies, you’ll be well on your way to making more informed bets. Remember to manage your bankroll, avoid emotional decisions, and shop for the best odds. With practice and patience, NFL betting can become an enjoyable part of your football season.