New Delhi, June 2: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain its key policy rate in the upcoming monetary policy review, while signalling a more cautious and hawkish outlook on inflation and global risks, according to a report by HSBC.
The report suggests that the central bank is likely to prioritise price stability amid ongoing uncertainties in global commodity markets, particularly crude oil, as well as uneven domestic inflation trends.
HSBC noted that while inflation has shown signs of moderation in recent months, underlying risks remain, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions and volatile energy prices. These conditions could prompt the RBI to adopt a more guarded stance on future policy easing.
The brokerage also indicated that the central bank may focus on maintaining financial stability while closely monitoring growth-inflation dynamics in the coming months.
Market participants are expected to watch for any forward guidance from the RBI regarding the trajectory of interest rates, liquidity conditions, and inflation expectations, which will play a key role in shaping investor sentiment.
Economists believe that a steady policy rate combined with a cautious tone would reflect the RBI’s intent to balance growth support with inflation control in an uncertain global environment.
Overall, the report highlights expectations of policy continuity, but with a stronger emphasis on vigilance and inflation management going forward.