Bitcoin jumped 7.7% on May 20 and is fast approaching the all-time high of $73,794. The price has been consolidating for more than two months after briefly exceeding the 2021 high of $69,000. An upside breakout could soon follow, with a target of $100,000 to $120,000 based on the size of historical rallies following a pullback like the one seen in April.
According to Cory Mitchell, an analyst with Trading.biz, who has studied every major rally in Bitcoin and broken it down statistically, said this:
“After a larger decline, like in 2022, when Bitcoin moves back to the prior all-time high, it often stays there for a while. In 2017 it oscillated near the prior 2013 all-time high for four months before resuming higher. In 2020, upon nearing the 2017 all-time high, the price chopped around for a month before continuing higher. In 2024 we’ve been hovering near 2021 high of $69,000 for two and a half months.
A break higher out of this sideways price action could occur very soon. This is still a Bitcoin bull market. Average rallies, following a pullback like the one in April, have historically been followed by a median rally percentage of 75% (average is 91%). If Bitcoin has a historically typical rally off of the May 1 swing low, the target is $100,000 to $110,000.”
The May 1 swing low was $56,500. If a median rally were to ensue, the price would be near $100,000 which is 75% above the May 1 low price. If an average rally were to ensue, the target would be near $110,000, which is 91% above the May swing low price.
The following chart shows the price path of Bitcoin in US dollars since late 2021, courtesy of TradingView.
These are typical moves higher, following a pullback, that have occurred in prior Bitcoin bull markets before another 20% or greater decline occurs. In other words, if Bitcoin continues to act as it has in prior bull markets, it could reach $100,000 or above before having another 20% decline.
There are no guarantees this move higher will result in a historically typical rally of 75% to 91%. Averages are composed of many rallies that were smaller and many that were bigger. This current rally, which is already 25% above the May 1 swing low, could run well above $110,000, or falter before reaching $100,000.
The historical averages provide a framework for what Bitcoin has done in the past but don’t necessarily indicate what it will do in the future.
