By Erik Boekel, Chief Commercial Officer at DHF Capital
The US dollar held steady on Thursday as investors awaited fresh economic releases that could provide direction after a rebound this week. Market attention is centered on the final estimate of second-quarter GDP, expected to show a 3.3% annualized expansion, alongside weekly jobless claims projected at 235K. Any deviation from these forecasts could shift expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Beyond today’s figures, the spotlight will turn to Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which is likely to carry significant weight in shaping the near-term easing outlook. Markets still price additional rate cuts by year-end, but the balance between gradual and more aggressive moves remains in question.
Treasury yields were broadly stable, with the 10-year note holding above 4.10%. Both the dollar and yields are poised to react if incoming data signals either deeper cracks in the labor market or stickier-than-expected inflation pressures.