Today market analysis on behalf of Bas Kooijman is the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A
20th February 2025
The US Dollar traded within a range as market participants assessed the latest FOMC minutes and trade policy developments. The minutes reaffirmed Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious stance, emphasizing that inflation risks and resilient economic growth support keeping interest rates on hold. Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson reinforced this sentiment by stating that the Fed has time to consider its next move.
Despite this positive outlook, a potential trade deal between the US and China could pose a downside risk. US President Donald Trump has signaled that a new trade deal with China is possible. This could ease trade tensions, potentially improving market sentiment and weighing on the dollar.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields declined slightly, with the 10-year note hovering close to 4.5%, but could continue to find support in the Fed’s hawkish stance. However, PMI and consumer sentiment data this week may shift expectations. Anticipations of an earlier rate cut could drive yields and the dollar down.