December 2019, a month in the decade became never to be forgotten when Wuhan, a corner in China divulged a harrowing information before the world which put not only millions of lives but economic greatness also on fire and the consensus of democratic countries started coming out of inclusive and decentralized development. Early 2020 began generating headlines which came as the most frightening, expanding and shrinking globalization.
The halcyon days of 19th century when Globalization took birth and started connecting the world with a thread of Dependency. There is no room for doubt that Globalization policies have not just stepped out millions and millions of people out of poverty line but till now the advancement of technologies with obliviousness of services and the standard of living of folks have already been in progressive stage. A meticulous study and prediction by the prominent Philosopher and Media theorist Marshall McLuhan who gave the concept of “Global Village” and drew attention of the world towards integration of planet. His study preached about Dependency, Interconnection, Electronic Nervous system, Media, Technology, Communication and it’s social effects. And the whole Universe has witnessed that those predictions are no more just predictions but have been fiercely transmuted into reality. Our dependency of lives or livelihoods on each other are more than required but amidst all these it is to be noted that transparency and independent media are indispensable conditions for globalization based on the foundation of freedom and capital.
The global spread of Corona has severely hit development, prosperity, employment potential and future dreams in one stroke. This global epidemic has spread in 208 countries, where the borders of the country have been closed. At the same time, many developmental criteria and priorities of countries have raised questions. A US scholar has raised the question in his article that when we can invest in large scale in building strategic oil reserves for our energy needs then why not such investments have been made on health needs. There are many more such questions that are being done by the people of the affected democratic countries or will go in future. For example, is it more important to use public money to purchase weapons or health and education?
Let’s not forget to contemplate Globalization of India. The Indian economy started opening up to the world in 1991, which is now nine times larger. Today, India has a global identity in the field of services, especially IT and medical tourism, due to the merit and globalization of Indian youth. The news of unemployment and migration of large-scale migrant laborers in India during the post-Corona lock-down and the tirade has been an outcry for the advocates of city-centred development and globalization. Bhim Rao Ambedkar, the architect of the Constitution of India, writes in this context ‘Small Holdings in India and Their Remedies’ that – “Ask the unemployed people what is the use of fundamental rights for them. If an unemployed person is paid an indefinite hours paid job And if you are asked to choose between joining a labour union, forming an organization or right to religious freedom? Can there be any doubt about his choice? “And” How can he choose the latter? Circumstances like starvation, homelessness, poorness, keeping children away from school can give up any fundamental rights to any person For this, unemployed people will be forced to give up fundamental rights for work and subsistence. “The same thing can be done in the debate about the relevance of globalization in India. The requirements and priorities of India in 1991 were different and India of 2020 is a country with different capabilities. India, the world’s youngest power led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, looked successful in leading the world as a responsible democratic and humanitarian global power in a global epidemic like Corona.
When the eruption of Corona left everyone flummoxed as it got no cure, countries like America, Italy, Spain announced late lockdown by prioritizing economic interests whereas our honourable Prime minister has put the human life in foreground and decided a prompt lock down. Though a frenzy of questions has been showered on the appropriateness of the decision. The mutilation and destruction that the World is seeing and ready to see after this outbreak will be undoubtedly frightful but any devastation of economy can be recovered, any damage can be mended if the drivers are preserved. Human resources are the actual drivers of success and leaders to the path of development. There is no coming back if you put them at stake.
They say “history repeats itself” and yes it does. World has beheld disturbing ups and downs in the economic cycle in the past:-
• Great Depression in August 1929-March 1933
• Recession in November 1948-October 1949
• Recession in July 1990-March 1991
• Economic Recession in December 2007-June 2009
The shadow of the same story of Wall Street and Central banks have started looming that collapsed World economy 11 years ago. The current global recession can also have negative impact to a large extent like the Great Recession of 1929 when due to the weakening of trade and production activities around the world there was a decrease in unemployment and demand due to which the stock market was broken on a large scale and over time many banks went bankrupt and the world was in the grip of severe economic recession. International borders are closed, most of the trade and production activities have slowed down except for health department.
It has been revealed that the lock down has chocked the booming economy. A total number of 22 millions have lost their jobs in USA, in which has taken a heavy toll on unemployment rate. In a recently released data of World Economic Outlook, April 2020 by IMF(International Monetary Fund), the average real GDP of all giant economies together like US, Euro Area, Germany etc. has shown a positive change of 1.7% in 2019 but a sharp plummet of 6.1% has been projected in 2020 which again has taken a positive move in 2021 by a surge of 4.5%. A cluster of Emerging markets and Developing Economies have shown an average increment of 3.7% in 2019 and small drop of 1% in 2020. In 2021 it’s being projected that emerging economies will see a bright rise of 6.6%. If analysed collectively, World output shows an obvious negative projection of 3% in 2020 whereas 5.8% is the figure with which world economic revival has been predicted.
The point of contention is not of an area or a state or a country or a continent but the whole planet is in same predicament. Outbreak of a fatal disease followed by several set of lockdowns and curfew which is hinting at nothing less than a steep fall down in economy taking a form of Global Recession. In such a situation, all democratic countries will have to sincerely insist on decentralized sustainable and inclusive development with technology transfer, which has basic needs for everyone at the centre. Fight tooth and nail or never come out from the well.
( Muni Shankar Pandey , Independent journalist)
