By Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management, Kudotrade
Crude oil futures continued to trade sideways overall and may experience some volatility within their current range. The market could remain exposed to the downside due to the supply increases coming from OPEC+. The organisation is set to increase output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, advancing a broader plan to restore over 2 million barrels per day of production by late 2026. This growing supply is likely to weigh on prices, limiting upside potential unless demand strengthens materially.
The demand outlook remains uncertain despite a degree of relief from the recently agreed US-EU trade deal, which avoided a full-scale trade war that could have dented fuel consumption. However, the imposition of a 15% tariff on most EU goods and ongoing negotiations between the US and China continue to cloud prospects.
Traders could also monitor the potential measures from the US against Russian oil exports as Trump reduced the deadline for a peace deal. Secondary sanctions could impact the available supply and potentially drive oil prices higher if they come into effect. Looking forward, traders could monitor the release of US crude inventory data for clues on demand in the country. The data could affect the direction of the market after the previous mixed figures. A strong drawdown could drive prices to the upside.