Market Analysis by Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
“Gold prices recorded a historic milestone during today’s trading session by briefly touching $3,000 per ounce, consolidating its role as a safe-haven asset amid a global scenario marked by intense trade tensions and expectations of relative changes in U.S. monetary policy.
However, despite the psychological significance of the level reached, the yellow metal has been unable to sustain trading above $3,000 due to moderate relief observed in global stock markets toward the weekly close. This relief in equities comes after days marked by uncertainty over trade escalations—particularly among the U.S., the EU, and China—fueling fears of a possible economic recession.
The easing of inflation data in the U.S., both in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), has been an additional supportive factor for gold this week. Especially noteworthy was the CPI’s return to a disinflationary trend, which could lead the Federal Reserve to relatively soften its monetary stance. Currently, the market anticipates up to three rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with the single adjustment suggested by the Fed in December.
In the short term, although resistance at $3,000 is evident, from an operational perspective there remains the possibility of an additional advance toward $3,040 per ounce, particularly if the Fed adopts a more accommodative tone in its upcoming meeting on Wednesday.
However, any further developments in trade conflicts will be decisive for the yellow metal. An escalation in tensions would further bolster its haven appeal. On the other hand, a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could bring marginal relief to the market, although sustained physical demand from central banks and global uncertainty would continue to provide solid support for gold prices.”
- Analysis by Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist – Pepperstone
