Mr. Vineet Agrawal, Co-founder of Jiraaf
The RBI has already frontloaded monetary easing with a 100-basis-point cut, laying a solid foundation for growth. In the September–October policy review, I expect the central bank to hold rates steady at 6.25%, given the economy’s strong 7.8% expansion in Q1 FY26. The recent GST reductions are set to provide a consumption-led boost, limiting the need for immediate policy action. A further cut of around 25 basis points appears more likely toward the end of FY26, once growth-inflation dynamics are reassessed. Meanwhile, the bond market is reflecting stability, with the 10-year G-sec yield consolidating around 6.5%. This signals confidence in a steady rate regime and minimal expectations of a cut in this review. Overall, this policy cycle is about continuity, predictability, and anchoring expectations rather than delivering near-term surprises.