By Daniel Takieddine, Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group
Crude oil prices rebounded but remained near multi-week lows as concerns over a potential supply glut overshadowed ongoing geopolitical tensions. The anticipated increase in supply from Iraq, which is reportedly planning to resume crude exports from its Kurdistan region, could weigh on prices. This move could add approximately 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global markets after a two-year halt.
Furthermore, Iraq has already increased its overall exports under the OPEC+ agreement, with projected shipments for September expected to be between 3.4 million and 3.45 million bpd. This increase, combined with OPEC+’s broader strategy of gradually increasing production levels to the market, is reinforcing fears of an oversupplied market.
While supply-side news could continue to weigh on prices, geopolitical risks are preventing a fall and are fueling some volatility. Traders remain focused on efforts to curb Russia’s energy revenue and their impact on oil supply. Other persistent risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and tensions between NATO and Russia, continue to provide a floor for prices.