By Antonio Di Giacomo, Financial Markets Analyst for LATAM at XS.com
September 11, 2025:
“Gold managed to recover part of its losses this week, supported by the weakness of the dollar and the decline in Treasury yields. This movement came after the release of a U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for August that was slightly above expectations, generating mixed reactions in financial markets. Although the precious metal still trades below its recent all-time highs, investors remain focused on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
Expectations of a rate cut in September have solidified, and markets are already pricing in the possibility of further reductions toward the end of the year. This outlook bolsters confidence in gold, which benefits in lower-rate environments, as investors often seek assets that preserve value amid reduced yields. The combination of a weaker dollar and falling rates thus becomes a key driver of support for the metal.
In this context, gold reaffirms its role as a strategic asset. Analysts highlight that beyond short-term movements, the structural trend in the market remains positive. Investors’ search for a haven is gaining momentum at a time when economic indicators point to a moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy.
The weakening of the labor market, reflected in the rise in jobless claims and the loss of momentum in job creation, reinforces expectations of a broader monetary easing cycle. At the same time, the contraction in the Producer Price Index (PPI) signals cooling inflationary pressures, even though CPI remains near 3%. This combination creates favorable ground for gold to maintain an upward trajectory.
International investment banks have updated their forecasts, projecting that gold prices could surpass $3,700 in 2025 and approach $4,000 in 2026. These estimates respond not only to monetary factors but also to growing geopolitical uncertainty and risks surrounding global trade. As markets adjust their expectations, institutional funds’ interest in the yellow metal continues to rise.
Political volatility linked to Federal Reserve decisions adds a layer of uncertainty. Every signal, statement, or adjustment in rate projections is closely monitored by investors, triggering immediate fluctuations in gold prices. However, this very uncertainty strengthens its appeal as a haven against financial turbulence.
Moreover, the international environment continues to provide support. Trade tensions, diplomatic disputes, and China’s economic slowdown directly influence risk perception. In this sense, gold benefits as a safeguard alternative to assets more sensitive to the economic cycle, consolidating its role in diversified investment portfolios.
Conclusion, gold is navigating a favorable scenario marked by expectations of rate cuts, dollar weakness, and a global context filled with uncertainty. While it still trades below recent highs, medium- and long-term projections point to greater upward momentum. Amid the volatility of financial and political markets, the precious metal continues to strengthen its status as a reliable haven and a key component in international investors’ strategies.”