By Ahmad Assiri, Research Strategist at Pepperstone
Gold is carving out a relatively quiet week, settling into new consolidation band after its double-digit rally earlier this month. Prices are hovering around $3,650 roughly unchanged from a week ago, suggesting the market is finding a new footing after the run-up. Flows remain biased toward the buy side, though with less urgency to push through the recent ceiling above $3,700.
The broader backdrop for bullion is still intact. Central bank decisions and forecasts have framed the macro conversation this week, with the Fed’s updated dot plot reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts ahead. That path, coupled with tolerance of inflation around 3%, continues to support the case for gold. Adding to this, political risks around the Fed’s independence, even if not an immediate driver, could become a structural support factor longer term.
Meanwhile, US Treasuries across the curve (2y, 10y, 30y) have resumed selling pressure and softening the dollar, both historically gold-positive dynamics. In practice, dips remain attractive for a wide range of market participants, long term investors are gradually building allocations while shorter term traders may show sensitivity to pullbacks. Either way, macro forces still keep bullion in the front seat of the current market narrative.