By Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade
Gold was little changed on Monday but could face some selling pressure if investors move to profit-taking after last week’s record highs. However, the metal remains firmly supported near peak levels, underpinned by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and strong institutional demand.
Markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut this week following signs of labour market weakness, with traders also factoring in the prospect of further reductions into next year. Simultaneously, concerns about the Fed’s independence have resurfaced after the Trump administration renewed its bid to remove Governor Lisa Cook, adding to institutional uncertainty.
ETF flows confirmed a strong underlying appetite. Gold-backed ETFs registered net inflows of 36.5 tonnes in the week ending September 5, the largest addition since mid-April. Persistent central bank buying, alongside these inflows, continues to provide structural support. However, jewellery demand in India faces pressure, which could limit the upside.
Geopolitical tensions also underpinned sentiment. In the Middle East, tensions continue to mount. Meanwhile, Russia’s assaults in Ukraine extended into NATO’s borders after Romania reported another drone incursion.
Additionally, US-China trade talks resumed in Spain, though uncertainty over tariffs and technology restrictions continues to cloud the outlook. Positive developments could lift market sentiment and weigh on gold prices. Conversely, any setback could further increase demand for gold.