Mumbai, June 5: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.6 per cent for FY2026–27, while estimating average inflation at 5.1 per cent, citing a mixed global economic backdrop marked by ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity prices.
In its latest macroeconomic assessment, the central bank said India’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by steady domestic demand, sustained government capital expenditure, and improving private investment activity. The services sector, in particular, remains a key driver of growth, alongside gradual recovery in manufacturing output.
At the same time, the RBI cautioned that external conditions remain uncertain. Fluctuations in global energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and uneven global growth continue to pose risks to the domestic outlook. These factors, the central bank noted, could influence inflation dynamics and trade performance in the coming quarters.
Despite these challenges, the RBI expressed confidence that India will maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies. The projected growth rate of 6.6 per cent reflects expectations of sustained economic momentum, driven primarily by strong domestic consumption and ongoing infrastructure development.
On the inflation front, the RBI’s projection of 5.1 per cent suggests that price pressures are likely to remain moderate but persistent. The central bank reiterated its focus on maintaining price stability while ensuring that growth remains on a sustainable path.
Economists view the outlook as balanced, with India’s growth story continuing to benefit from structural reforms, digital expansion, and increased formalisation of the economy. However, they also point to global volatility as a factor that could periodically test economic stability.
The RBI said it will continue to monitor evolving domestic and global conditions closely and take necessary measures to support macroeconomic stability.