Market comments on behalf of Maria Agustina Patti Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
13th March 2025
Crude prices saw a slight retreat after a strong rebound, as traders weighed near-term demand strength against broader economic uncertainties. A larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories reflected firm seasonal demand, providing some support. However, renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union raised concerns over a potential economic slowdown, which could dampen long-term oil consumption. Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies introduced caution into the market, limiting further price gains.
On the supply side, OPEC+ production increases, notably from Kazakhstan, added pressure by raising concerns about the alliance’s ability to maintain supply discipline as higher output could weigh on prices. Meanwhile, weakening jet fuel demand, reflected in declining U.S. air travel volumes, hinted at potential headwinds for refined product consumption. These developments contributed to crude’s volatility as markets assessed the evolving supply-demand balance.
Despite these challenges, geopolitical risks and resilient global demand could continue to provide support. Tensions in Eastern Europe and damage to energy infrastructure have reinforced supply concerns, preventing a steeper decline in crude prices. Additionally, global oil demand remains robust, surpassing initial projections, indicating sustained consumption trends. While these factors help stabilize prices, the outlook could remain mixed.