By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
October 13, 2025
“Gold reached an all-time high of around USD 4,090 per ounce on Monday, extending last week’s rally as investors continued to favour safe-haven assets amid global political volatility and expectations of sustained Federal Reserve easing. While short-term profit-taking cannot be ruled out, the medium-term outlook for bullion remains constructive, supported by lingering macroeconomic fragility and shifting political dynamics.
The prolonged US government shutdown and renewed volatility in US–China relations have reinforced the perception of a fragile policy environment. While President Donald Trump’s softer rhetoric toward Beijing briefly eased market tensions, traders remain wary of potential reversals that could revive trade-related risks.
Investors also kept an eye on Fed policy expectations, with markets still pricing in two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. Elsewhere, political developments added another layer of political risk. In Japan, the newly elected Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi suffered an early setback after her coalition partner Komeito quit the ruling alliance.
The uncertainty, alongside ongoing fiscal strains in France, helped sustain global demand for gold. ETF flows offered a nuanced picture. The week ending October 3 saw a robust 43-tonne inflow, the strongest since April, driven primarily by US investors. However, momentum moderated in the following week with 13.7 tonnes added, the weakest since mid-August.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, President Trump’s visit to Israel to mark the start of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas signalled tentative progress toward peace. While easing tensions may temper short-term safe-haven demand, any setback could quickly revive risk aversion and reinforce gold’s appeal.”