June 10: The Indian rupee is projected to average around 96 against the US dollar in FY27, with continued pressure likely from global macroeconomic factors, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The outlook points to persistent strength in the US dollar, volatility in crude oil prices, and uncertain foreign portfolio investment flows as key risks for the currency. These external factors, along with global interest rate trends and geopolitical developments, are expected to influence emerging market currencies over the medium term.
While short-term fluctuations may persist, the report suggests that India’s underlying macroeconomic stability could help limit sharp depreciation in the rupee.
Oil prices remain a crucial factor for India’s external balance, given their impact on import costs and the current account deficit, making energy market movements a key area of focus for currency watchers.