Following the recent news that the US Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden looks to have won the 2020 US Presidential Election after a tight race against Republican incumbent Donald Trump and Biden’s victory will lead to a significant change in the US’ approach to the Middle East;
Richard Thompson, the editorial director of MEED, part of GlobalData, comments:
“Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 US presidential elections will lead to a significant change in the US’ approach to the Middle East in terms of tone, but it is unlikely to deliver any radical shifts in US policy in the region.
“While the Middle East remains important to US interests in terms of energy and security, it no longer has the priority that it once did. As US energy self-sufficiency has grown, Middle East oil has diminished in its significance to the US. Meanwhile, the deep scars from US interventions in the region during George W Bush’s post-9/11 resurgence in neo-conservatism mean that there is no appetite on either side of the US political spectrum for a return to direct military engagement in the region.
“Since 2011, when President Barack Obama ‘pivoted’ US foreign policy towards Asia-Pacific, China has been the number one item on America’s international agenda. This will not change; but, despite its downgrade, the Middle East remains important to US interests, and President-elect Biden inherits a host of challenging issues for the US in the region.
“Iran will feature at the top of Biden’s regional agenda. The president-elect has said that he intends to re-enter the Obama-era international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear programme, so long as Iran comes into compliance with the terms of the agreement. This will see the US once again lining up with the UK, France and Germany to pursue diplomatic efforts with Iran.
“In return, Tehran will demand an easing of economic sanctions, and possibly even some reparations, which will potentially open up some new opportunities for business in the region. However, it will be a tough negotiation for the new US president, who will face strong opposition from Republicans at home, and from Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the region.
“The Biden administration will provide a less supportive stance to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen than has been seen over the past four years. He will use US influence to accelerate Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s efforts to find a diplomatic resolution to the war in Yemen, which is a humanitarian crisis and a political and military quagmire.
“Biden supports a two-state solution in Palestine and will increase US aid to the Palestinians. He will seek to curtail the annexation of Palestinian territory by Israel, but Washington’s support for Israel will not waver and he is unlikely to reverse Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. Biden will be keen to see further normalizing of relations between Arab states and Tel Aviv.
“The most unpredictable and treacherous waters for Biden may well be found in the East Mediterranean, where tensions are rising between Turkey, Syria, Israel, Egypt and the UAE – not to mention the EU. Ankara is seeking to increase Turkish influence around the Mediterranean in Libya, in the East Mediterranean and in Syria. At the same time, President Erdogan is rolling back individual freedoms and cracking down on opponents. As a Nato ally, the US is committed to supporting Turkey, but Biden will also seek to increase pressure on Ankara to improve its respect for human rights and democracy in its bilateral relations with Ankara.
“In Egypt, the government of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi is another close ally of the US in the region that has become increasingly tough in its treatment of opponents and journalists. Biden will likely use US military aid and financial support as a lever to increase pressure on Cairo to respect human rights and other democratic freedoms. President Biden is unlikely to change Washington’s course in Syria and Iraq, where the US retains a small military presence. Biden will not pursue a more aggressive approach in Syria. This will see Russia increase its influence.”
