Market Commentary
Friday 23 October 2026
Ryan Kirkley, CEO, Global Settlement Network
Inflation Returns, and Bitcoin Pays the Price
U.S. inflation has climbed to 3.7% on the back of higher gasoline prices, and Bitcoin has slipped below $82,000 as investors reprice rates, liquidity and risk heading into year-end.
The macro backdrop is now the story. Higher energy costs are feeding inflation, the Federal Reserve has less room to ease, and with capital still expensive, investors have little reason to add exposure to volatile assets.
Institutional demand is softening too: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $228.6 million in net outflows over the past week.
Periods like this are a stress test for liquidity management. When capital tightens and investors pull back, the ability to move funds, manage collateral and settle quickly becomes critical, especially in a market that trades 24/7 while much of the infrastructure beneath it still keeps banking hours.
My long-term view is unchanged. Difficult markets expose exactly where financial infrastructure falls short, and that is where the opportunity lies.
Stablecoins Move $400 Million an Hour, Mostly While Banks Are Closed
A new Coinbase-commissioned report found stablecoins processed more than $400 million in adjusted transfers per hour in the third quarter, with 73% of screened volume occurring outside traditional U.S. banking hours.
The 73% figure is the one that matters. Businesses and investors are already moving money on their own schedule, not the banks’.
Commerce doesn’t stop when banks close. For businesses operating across borders, waiting on banking windows to access liquidity or settle transactions is a cost they should no longer have to bear.
Institutional adoption is following. Seven of the ten largest U.S. banks have tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement, and 30% of mid-market businesses with cross-border activity are now using or piloting stablecoins, up from 10% in 2024.
The commercial case for stablecoins is playing out in real time. The next challenge is ensuring liquidity, compliance and settlement work just as efficiently across networks and jurisdictions.
The technology has proven that money can move around the clock. Now the rest of the financial system has to catch up.
Washington’s Crypto Momentum Hits Another Snag
Patrick Witt’s exit from the White House Crypto Council has reportedly left the advisory body without staff. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act remains stalled, and several major public companies have objected to third-party tokenization of their shares.
Two issues stand out. Institutions need regulatory continuity that outlasts individual political appointments, and tokenization has to make commercial sense for the issuers whose assets are involved.
The case for tokenized finance remains strong, but not every model for bringing traditional assets on-chain will survive. Institutions need clarity on ownership, settlement, liquidity and investor protection before they commit serious capital.
That is where infrastructure providers come in. As institutions move past experimentation, they will expect the same reliability and operational control they demand from traditional markets, and the providers that deliver it will set the standard.
Prediction Markets Have a Trust Problem
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 60% of Americans oppose betting on U.S. election outcomes in prediction markets, a view shared by majorities in both parties. Opposition was stronger still to members of Congress or their staff trading on political events.
The public is right to be skeptical. Turning elections into tradable contracts creates incentives that have no place in a democratic process, and the risks of manipulation, insider access and conflicts of interest are not edge cases. They are built into the product.
There is a fundamental difference between a market that prices public expectations and one where participants may hold privileged information, or the power to influence the very outcome being traded. When those closest to policy can bet on it, the market stops measuring sentiment and starts rewarding access.
This is why identity, permissions and compliance must be built into financial infrastructure from the start. Blockchain provides transaction transparency, but transparency is not accountability. Institutions need to know who is participating and whether each transaction meets the relevant rules.
Not every market that can be built should be. Until prediction markets can demonstrate real safeguards against insider trading and manipulation, they will not earn public or institutional trust, nor should they.
The Infrastructure Case Keeps Getting Stronger
Taken together, the picture is clear: short-term pressure on digital assets, and a long-term case for better financial infrastructure that is only getting harder to ignore.
Inflation is keeping investors cautious, Bitcoin is struggling to attract fresh capital and Washington has yet to deliver regulatory certainty. Meanwhile, stablecoins are moving hundreds of millions of dollars an hour, most of it while banks are closed. And the backlash against election betting is a reminder that not every new market deserves to scale.
That tells us where the industry is heading. Institutions want faster settlement, continuous access to liquidity and clear regulatory boundaries. What they need is infrastructure that delivers all three across assets and jurisdictions, with trust built in rather than bolted on.
The demand is already here. The job now is to build infrastructure that serves it at institutional scale, wherever Bitcoin trades tomorrow.
