By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
September 10, 2025
“Gold traded with a resilient, almost self-reinforcing bid as three familiar forces lined up again: a softer policy path from the Fed, persistent official-sector demand, and a background of geopolitical and institutional risk that keeps hedging in vogue.
The immediate catalyst remains rates and the dollar. Since last Friday’s weaker U.S. payrolls, markets have leaned harder into a September cut and a multi-meeting easing path; real yields have eased on net, and that combination—cheaper carry and a less muscular dollar—continues to underwrite bullion’s appeal as a non-yielding store of value.
Beyond rates, the “steady hand” buyer remains the official sector. Through 2024–25, central banks have been methodically adding to reserves, a structural tailwind that has mattered more as prices pushed to fresh highs. In fact, the value of central-bank gold holdings has swelled alongside prices this year—now rivaling, and at times exceeding, the value of their U.S. Treasury holdings. That helps explain why dips keep getting absorbed and why rallies have felt more durable than in prior cycles.
A second layer is institutional risk. Questions around the Fed’s independence have become a market variable—uncomfortable for bonds and the dollar, comfortable for gold. Even when yields back up on a given day, the “policy-credibility hedge” bid tends to persist in bullion.”