New Delhi, Sep 4: India’s monsoon outlook has come under renewed pressure as strengthening El Nino conditions coincide with expectations of below-normal rainfall in September, raising concerns for agriculture, water resources and the broader rural economy.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast September rainfall at less than 91 per cent of the long-period average. The projection follows a weak August, when rainfall across the country was 16 per cent below normal.
The developing weather pattern is particularly important because September is a crucial month for crops that were sown during the southwest monsoon. Reduced rainfall at this stage could affect crops such as cotton, soybean, maize and pulses, while lower soil moisture may also create difficulties for farmers preparing to sow winter crops.
El Nino is adding to the uncertainty. The weather phenomenon, marked by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, can disrupt global weather patterns and is often associated with drier conditions across parts of Asia. The IMD has indicated that El Nino conditions have strengthened and could influence the final phase of this year’s monsoon.
The implications extend beyond the farm sector. The monsoon supplies a large share of India’s annual rainfall and plays an important role in replenishing reservoirs, rivers and groundwater. With a significant portion of Indian agriculture still dependent on rainfall, a prolonged shortfall can affect farm incomes, food production and rural demand.
Lower rainfall could also put pressure on water availability in areas already experiencing deficient precipitation. Reservoir levels, irrigation requirements and drinking-water supplies could become more important concerns if the dry conditions persist.
The agricultural impact may be particularly significant because crops affected by August’s rainfall deficit are entering important stages of development. A further shortage of rain could increase the risk of lower yields, while insufficient soil moisture could complicate the planting of wheat, chickpea and rapeseed later in the year.
The weather outlook also comes against the backdrop of an unusually hot August. India recorded its warmest August since 1901, with the national mean temperature reaching 28.01 degrees Celsius, while rainfall during the month was among the lowest recorded since 2001.
For policymakers, the immediate focus will be on monitoring rainfall distribution rather than looking only at the national average. Rainfall can vary sharply between regions, and the impact on crops and water availability depends heavily on where and when the rain falls.
The possibility of a weaker September therefore adds another layer of uncertainty to India’s monsoon season. While it does not automatically point to a severe drought, continued rainfall shortages combined with strengthening El Nino conditions could increase pressure on agriculture, water management and rural economic activity.
With the monsoon entering its final stretch, the coming weeks will be critical. For farmers, reservoirs and policymakers alike, every spell of rainfall could make a significant difference to how India closes the 2026 monsoon season.