By Felipe Barragán, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone
– September 16, 2025 –
“Gold traded with a “wait-for-the-Fed” tone today, consolidating near record territory as investors balanced firm long-term supports against near-term event risk. The dominant driver is policy: markets are pricing a quarter-point Fed cut on Wednesday, and the sensitivity is now less about the move itself and more about the dots and Powell’s guidance on the pace of easing. A benign path (gradual cuts with subdued real yields) tends to underpin bullion; a surprisingly hawkish set of projections could nudge the dollar and term premiums higher and sap some of gold’s momentum.
Flows and positioning have leaned supportive into the meeting. Bullion-backed ETFs added close to 17 tonnes through late last week, helping gold notch another weekly gain as investors sought duration in a world of easing policy and mixed growth. While short-term profit-taking may generate occasional pullbacks, the broader impulse from ETF demand remains a tailwind so long as policy expectations don’t reverse.
Beyond the Fed, central banks continue to provide a durable floor. World Gold Council data indicate net official-sector purchases remained positive through mid-summer—even after a slower July—underscoring persistent reserve diversification at current price levels. That structural bid matters for pullback depth: it has repeatedly absorbed dips when speculative length pares back.
The two swing variables into mid-week are the dollar and real yields. The greenback has been broadly steady ahead of the central-bank “bonanza,” but its next leg will hinge on whether the Fed signals one cut or a series.
A softer dollar and easier real rates would likely keep gold anchored near highs; a firmer dollar on tighter-than-expected guidance would argue for consolidation. Either way, with ETF interest rebuilding and central-bank demand intact, the medium-term skew still looks resilient even if the near term is headline-driven.”