Today’s markets analysis on behalf of Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at Tickmill
14th December 2024
Crude oil futures were on track for their first weekly gain since late November although they remain near their lows for the year. Crude prices have seen some gains, reinforced by expectations that China’s stimulus measures could strengthen demand. However, the market has not yet shown strong conviction for a more substantial recovery and could see more cautious, range-bound trading. Meanwhile, recent data revealed that China’s crude imports grew for the first time in seven months.
The International Energy Agency revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast upward, citing China’s stimulus measures, but also projected a supply surplus next year. Non-OPEC+ nations, including the U.S. and Brazil, are expected to increase output, which could weigh on prices. Furthermore, Canada’s major oil producers have forecast higher output in 2025, while U.S. shale production is anticipated to grow as well. Despite the forecast for rising demand, bearish sentiment prevails, with global supply growth in 2025 being a concern.