New Delhi, May 28: Global temperatures are projected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in collaboration with the UK Met Office.
The report indicates that the annual global mean surface temperature between 2026 and 2030 is likely to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with a strong probability of at least one year exceeding recent record highs.
Scientists estimate an 86% chance that one year in this period could surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. The findings also suggest a 91% likelihood that global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year during this timeframe.
The report notes that such short-term exceedances do not necessarily breach the long-term targets of the Paris Agreement, which focuses on sustained temperature trends over decades. However, researchers caution that even temporary spikes increase the risk of more frequent and severe extreme weather events.
Experts also highlighted the growing influence of natural climate variability, including potential El Niño conditions around 2026–2028, which could further drive temperature increases in certain years.
The Arctic region is expected to continue warming at a faster rate than the global average, amplifying concerns about ice loss, sea-level rise, and ecosystem disruption.
Climate scientists emphasized that continued warming beyond 1.5°C increases the likelihood of intensified heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall events, and other climate-related hazards, reducing the world’s capacity to adapt effectively.
The findings reinforce calls for stronger global climate action to limit long-term warming and accelerate emissions reductions across sectors.