By Wael Makarem, Financial Markets Strategists Lead at Exness
Crude oil prices were relatively stable at the start of the week, with WTI futures hovering near the USD 61 per barrel level. Traders could remain cautious amid concerns about a supply glut and following OPEC’s decision. The organization agreed to pause its planned production increases for the first quarter of 2026 and proceeded with a small 137,000 bpd hike for December. The decision could relieve the market from further downside pressure as traders contend with risks of oversupply.
At the same time, the market could find support in continuing geopolitical risks. Recent US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, combined with strikes on energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe, could add upward pressure.
However, the market remains pressured by rising global inventories, record-high US output near 13.8 million barrels per day, and weakening demand signals, particularly from China’s contracting manufacturing PMI. With projections of a significant global surplus emerging in early 2026, the market could remain exposed to the downside and sensitive to OPEC+’s policy decisions.